This week in Following the Auction, we’re taking a look at where the major US stock indexes are ending the first quarter for 2015.
There are still 2 more trading days til the official month/quarter end and anything can happen in the Middle East adding to the complexity of an already complicated situation. The dollar has slightly backed off it’s highs this week but the gain of 22% in the past 12 months has landed a double whammy on U.S. companies with big sales abroad. Revenue and earnings from foreign markets are worth less when exchanged into dollars and a companys ability to compete with rivals in countries with ‘cheap’ currency is more difficult. The currency issue isn’t hurting Facebook, Google and Twitter, all vying to be crowned King in the social media arena. According to Motley Fool, in a survey conducted last month, marketers across the U.S. were asked if they have purchased a video spot on Facebook or intend to in the next six months. Of those surveyed, a whopping 63% said they already have gone video on Facebook, or were going to next month! In fact, to personally support that, I just read (but watched) a list of 10 things on a Facebook post that had a GIF, an animated image, for each of the items on the list! I was engaged for the 3 minutes I read the article, they won those 3 minutes of my time with their clever marketing tools, damn-it.
When I was learning about futures at a school in Mobile, Alabama, I met Lewis Borsellino, who was the guest speaker at a special anniversary week seminar focused on just trading. The school taught the ‘7 Sisters’ review. ‘The 7 Sisters’ was originally coined in the 1950’s, referring to the 7 oil companies which formed the “Consortium for Iran” cartel and dominated the global petroleum industry from the mid-1940s to the 1970s. Now the 7 sisters referred to the ES (Emini S&P futures), YM (Emini Dow futures), NQ (Emini NASDAQ 100 Futures), DAX (DAX Futures), ZB (30 yr. Treasury Bond Futures), GC (Gold Futures), and CL (Crude Oil Futures). Having discussed the Euro Zone in a previous post WHADDAWEDONOW?, lets take a look at a few of the ‘sisters’ as we hone in on the end of the quarter. Saving the bonds for their own post, let’s look-back over the first quarter at the Nasdaq, Dow, S&P, Gold, Crude and the bully in the group… the dollar. (Please click to enlarge chart)
Comparing all 6 indexes for the 1st quarter, lets look at the following indicators measuring year to date progress.
- a volume profile in gold, the pink horizontal line is the VPOC, representing the ‘fairest’ price or most ‘accepted’ price during the time frame in profile, the first quarter of 2015.
- a fibonacci retracement from low to high of the quarter, highlighting the PRZ, potential reversal zone, for price support or resistance, following the trend. In practice we look for confluence with multiple data points, this view is for the relative comparison.
- CCI, a commodity channel index, revealing in it’s yellow excursions into oversold/undersold territory.
Notice NQ has left it’s Quarterly VPOC near the high at 4433.75, with current price at 4323.75. YM and ES spent last week retreating to the safety of their respective VPOCs. Gold (sorry only had a TOS chart) struggling above the years open about 1184, but well off it’s lows, 1140 area. Crude oil had a major impact this quarter but is ending well off the lows due to the new tensions in the Middle East. And finally the bully on the block, the Dollar, squeezing global debtors to pay back quickly, finally tagged 1.00 before also retreating to tag the quarterly VPOC around .95.
Heading into the final 2 days of the quarter, where are we going? Will the ES pick up with initiative buyers or will the bears wearing greenbacks hold off the bulls? Pour your coffee, click on our website and read our free (!!!) Pre-Market Research, then let Lewis Borsellino fill up your day with up-to-the-minute tweets from Man Over Market that will keep you coming back for more! Catch his YouTube video’s, now twice weekly and you can ask him anything!
Have a great week! Trade smarter… not more often!
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